Thursday, December 26, 2013

Nashville unemployment rate posts big drop from 6.7% to 5.8%

Managing Editor-Nashville Business Journal

Davidson County's unemployment rate dropped to 5.8 percent in November, according to new data from the Tennessee Department of Labor and Workforce Development, down from 6.7 percent in October.
The new data shows that unemployment decreased in 93 counties in November, increased in one and remained flat in one.
Davidson County posted the eighth-lowest unemployment rate in the state in November, and the lowest of the state's major metropolitan areas. Williamson County posted the state's lowest unemployment rate, at 5 percent, down from 5.7 percent in October.
Around the region, Cheatham County's unemployment rate dropped to 5.5 percent, down from 6.3 percent in October; Maury County's rate dropped to 8 percent, down from 9 percent; Montgomery County's rate fell to 7.8 percent, down from 8.6 percent; Robert County's rate fell to 5.7 percent, down from 6.4 percent; Rutherford County's rate fell to 5.6 percent, down from 6.4 percent; and Wilson County's rate fell to 5.4 percent, down from 6.6 percent.
Tennessee's statewide unemployment rate for November was 8.1 percent, down from 8.5 percent in October. November's national unemployment rate was 7 percent, down from 7.3 percent. via @nashvillebiz
In its housing outlook for 2014, Forbes has ranked the Nashville metropolitan statistical area as the fourth-best U.S. market in which to buy a home next year, noting a growing local economy and housing prices that are still under-valued despite a recent uptick.

Friday, December 20, 2013

U.S. growth revised higher, economy on firmer footing, GDP grew at 4.1%

(Reuters) - The U.S. economy grew at its fastest pace in almost two years in the third quarter, the government said on Friday as it revised its estimates of business and consumer spending higher.The broad revisions hinted at some underlying strength, which could help the economy better absorb the blow from an anticipated cutback in inventory accumulation this quarter.

The Federal Reserve on Wednesday gave the economy a vote of confidence, announcing it would reduce its $85 billion monthly bond purchases by $10 billion starting in January.

Gross domestic product grew at a 4.1 percent annual rate instead of the 3.6 percent pace reported earlier this month, the Commerce Department said in its third estimate.

That was the quickest pace since the fourth quarter of 2011 and an acceleration from the April-June quarter's a 2.5 percent.

Economists had expected third-quarter GDP growth would be unrevised at a 3.6 percent rate.
"This is a fairly solid report, said Ryan Sweet, senior economist at Moody's Analytics in West Chester, Pennsylvania, adding that the mix of factors in the report was more positive than expected. via @reuters

Tuesday, October 8, 2013

The Greater Nashville Association of Realtors posted their month sales figures today (  Sales are up, inventories are down, and pricing is up compared to September 2012.  Pending sales were up compared to 9/2012.  This indicates that October sale will exceed 10/2012.  It is significant to note that the difference in the number of pending sales between 2012 and 2013 has been declining most months this year.  This it likely to translate in to a flat market as we head into 2014.

Here are the year to date sale through the end of the third quarter for the past 4 years:

Sales though 3rd quarter

GNAR does not report Median Price by Quarter.  This is a better indicator of overall market pricing trends as opposed to comparisons of month to month or month to the same month in the previous year.  This is due to the larger data sample available for a quarterly analysis.

An analysis of median price by quarter show significant price gains in comparison of year over year and prior quarter.  Basic economic theory is in play here.  Supply is down, demand is up, pricing is move forward.

Median Price by Quarter
20121stRes$162,050 20131stRes$169,900
Condo$139,900 Condo$146,434
2ndRes$175,000 2ndRes$195,500
Condo$153,500 Condo$163,000
3rdRes$177,000 3rdRes$198,000
Condo$149,900 Condo$162,250

Thursday, April 11, 2013

Currently the inventory of homes offered for sale based on current list prices is as follows:

Sales Rate for High Priced Homes in Middle Tennessee



Number of Listings 4/4/2013

Current Months of Inventory based on 2012 Sales
















































































and Up





Based on listings sold in MLS on sites of less than 20 acres - Study area includes Davidson, Williamson, Cheatham, Robertson, Sumner, Wilson and Rutherford Counties.

This study indicates that currently there is a minimum of 1.46 years worth of inventory in each price range over $1,500,000, with 6.3 years worth in the 3 to 4 million dollar range.

Additionally, we examined sales of homes with final list prices from $1,500,000 to $2,900,000, that sold from January 1, 2011 to April 9, 2013, on lots of 20 acres or less.  In 2011 the average total marketing time from original listing to accepted contract was 456 days, in 2012 the average was 301 days, and through the first quarter of 2013 the average was 627 days. Half year comparisons also showed declining marketing times, with the first half of 2011 showing an average of 504 days, second half of 2011 - 429 days, first half of 2012 - 330 days, and the second half of 2012 - 276 days.

Not surprisingly with a decrease in the average marketing time there was a corresponding increase in average original list price to sales price ratio. In 2011 it averaged 80.45% and in 2012 it had increased to 83.19%. Noting that year to date marketing times in 2013 are higher, and the original list price to sales price ratio has declined to 79.18%.

Thursday, April 4, 2013

Home values performed 42 percent better when located near public transportation

Market Watch
Wednesday, April 03, 2013
Location, location, location near public transportation may be the new real-estate mantra according to a new study released by the American Public Transportation Association (APTA) and the National Association of Realtors (NAR). Data in the study reveals that during the last recession, residential property values performed 42 percent better on average if they were located near public transportation with high-frequency service.

“When homes are located near public transportation, it is the equivalent of creating housing as desirable as beach front property,” said APTA President and Chief Executive Officer Michael Melaniphy. “This study shows that consumers are choosing neighborhoods with high-frequency public transportation because it provides access to up to five times as many jobs per square mile as compared to other areas in a given region. Other attractive amenities in these neighborhoods include lower transportation costs, walkable areas and robust transportation choices.”

“Higher home values reflect greater market demand for areas near public transportation,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. “Transportation plays an important role in real estate and housing decisions, and the data suggests that residential real estate near public transit will remain attractive to buyers going forward. A sound transportation system not only benefits individual property owners, but also creates the foundation for a community’s long-term economic well-being.”

The study, The New Real-Estate Mantra: Location Near Public Transportation, investigates how well residential properties located in a half-mile proximity to high-frequency public transportation or in the “public transit shed” have performed in holding their value during the recession compared to other properties in a given region.

While residential property values declined substantially between 2006 to 2011, properties close to public transit showed significantly stronger resiliency. The following are a few examples from the study: In Boston, residential property in the rapid transit area outperformed other properties in the region by an incredible 129 percent. In the Chicago public transit area, home values performed 30 percent higher than the region; in San Francisco, 37 percent higher; Minneapolis-St Paul, 48 percent; and in Phoenix, 37 percent higher.

The study looked at five regions, which illustrate the types of high-frequency public transit systems throughout the country. High-frequency public transportation includes subway (heavy rail), light rail and bus rapid transit. This sample accurately projects the nationwide average (42 percent) variance among properties located near high-frequency public transportation and those that are located further away from public transit.

“Stable property values in areas with public transit access have a number of policy implications,” Melaniphy said. “As Congress and state and local governments look for ways to accelerate economic growth, this study shows that investing in public transportation is a boon to revitalizing our economy.”

“When consumers choose a home, they also choose a lifestyle. Shorter commutes and more walkable neighborhoods matter to a growing number of people, especially those living in congested metro areas,” Yun said.

Wednesday, April 3, 2013

Home prices rais 9.2% in past year - CoreLogic

Nashville Post reports "There's no sign of weakness yet in local home prices, according to research firm CoreLogic. In fact, we may be getting slightly frothy for a market that supposedly doesn't see the extremes of cities such as Miami or Vegas. February prices of non-distressed properties clocked in 9.2 percent higher than the mark of the year before, up from 6.3 percent in January. Throw in distressed homes and the increase was 'only' 7 percent. The national numbers are equally impressive."